Abstract
This paper examines the impact of the rapid expansion of Colombia’s fresh-cut flower industry (a sector characterized by high female employment) on different forms of violence. The empirical strategy leverages variation geo-climatic suitability for flower cultivation to identify the causal effect of export-driven labor demand shocks at the municipality level. I find that increased flower production leads to a significant reduction in unorganized violent crime (as measured by homicide rates) in flower-suitable municipalities, without affecting participation in guerrilla warfare. In contrast, rising coffee prices—associated with male employment—reduce civil conflict (consistent with Dube and Vargas, 2013) but lead to higher homicide rates. To reconcile these findings, I develop a household model in which households both engage in and indirectly benefit from criminal activities (organized and unorganized), and where gender-differentiated preferences shape labor market responses and violence-related outcomes.
Local Organizer: Giovanni Angelini