Seminar After the Draft: The Lasting Effects of Male Conscription on Well-Being

Abstract

We study the effects of compulsory military service on mental health by exploiting the 2005 suspension of conscription in Italy.  Using provincial data (2000-2021) on causes of death, a difference-in-differences design shows that suicide rates among young men aged 20–24 declined disproportionately in low-education provinces. Since university students could defer military service for study reasons, the suspension of conscription effectively equalized exposure to the draft between non-students (who typically served immediately after high school) and students (who served after graduation). Using individual-level health survey data, a regression discontinuity design based on age reveals that men exposed to conscription report being less calm, smoke more, and score lower on psychological and mental health indices. No comparable effects emerge for women or other age groups. Finally, we find indirect spillovers within households: relatives of conscripts also exhibit worse psychological wellbeing and higher smoking rates. Overall, even short-term compulsory service in peacetime generated persistent adverse effects on civilian mental health and family wellbeing.