WiP Seminar: Vladimir Zabolotskiy

Title: "Cargo 200: War Propaganda, Regime Support, and Russian Casualties in Ukraine"

  • Data: 09 novembre 2023 dalle 13:15 alle 14:15

  • Luogo: Seminar Room - Piazza Scaravilli, 2 + Microsoft Teams Meeting

Abstract

Can new information on casualties hinder the spread of war propaganda and erode regime support in an autocracy? While many studies have explored the impact war has on political attitudes in democracies, the implications it has for autocrats are unclear due to both their ability to manipulate the narrative around the war and the conflicting effects military losses have on public sentiment. To fill this gap, I explore the temporal-spatial variation of Russian casualties in Ukraine and link it to social media engagement indicative of pro-war and pro-regime sentiment. Reports on casualties, in particular, not only reveal the human toll of war but also are in contrast to the statements made by the federal government in Russia. Preliminary findings indicate that user engagement with war content dropped after the start of the invasion and after the casualty reports were in, suggesting that new information can disrupt the spread of propaganda and potentially erode the autocrat's support base.