Abstract
Prevention is important in many areas such as health, crime, climate change and armed conflict. In this article we propose a dynamic model in which a policy maker has the choice between early action (prevention) and a late action (intervention). We show that intervention can crowd out prevention but that prevention crowds in intervention. This raises the possibility of too little prevention without a commitment to optimal policies. We then apply our model to data from a large monthly dataset of armed conflict and risk of the period 2010-2021.
Invited by: Giovanni Prarolo
Local Organizer: Massimiliano G. Onorato