Abstract
We study the effects of targeted repression of organized crime on inter-clan violence and illegal activity. We investigate the possible trade-off between curbing violence and illegal activity. If clans fight for territorial control, targeting the strongest ones reduces violence, but if surviving clans are the most productive, it also boosts illegal activity and profits. Targeting the weakest clans has opposite effects. If instead clans are able to sustain a peaceful territory-splitting agreement, targeting the strongest clans may raise violence by triggering a succession war. Conversely, targeting the weakest clans may allow the strongest ones to peacefully thrive. Our theoretical analysis helps interpret the evolution of violence and illegal activity after different kinds of repressive policy adopted in Italy, Mexico and Colombia.