Abstract
We show how probate inventories can be used to measure the seasonal pattern of corn stocks and hence provide direct information on inter-year storage (or “carryover”). The correct procedure to quantify carryover is to use a ratio-of-means statistic that consistently estimates the appropriate weighted average of individual carryover decisions, equalling total carryover. We show that the seasonal pattern is plausible, robust to alternative specifications and consistent with a different way of estimating carryover. Using an existing database of inventories we find that on average carryover in the period 1600-1750 was very low in Kent and virtually zero in Cornwall.
Edmund Cannon is an applied economist whose research spans centuries — from analyzing 18th-century English grain markets to quantifying modern behavioral biases. His work demonstrates how rigorous data analysis can illuminate both historical market efficiency and contemporary economic behavior.
He has publications in Economic History Review, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, and American Economic Review.