Seminario Bologna Environmental Economics Group (BEEG) Seminar

1)

Speaker: Lorenzo Casprini (University of Bologna)

Title: Water and Migration: a Critical Nexus

Abstract: Access to freshwater has historically played a critical role in sustaining the development of human settlements and communities. Nowadays, climate change and mounting anthropogenic pressures on water resources are increasingly disrupting the hydrological cycle, thereby reshaping the spatial distribution of freshwater availability and consequently altering local accessibility to freshwater. This paper examines the extent to which deteriorating access to freshwater, proxied by liquid water equivalent (LWE) thickness, may function as a push factor for outward migration. Drawing on 107,840 subnational (administrative-level 1) migration flows across 72 countries over the period 1960–2016, and employing a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator, addressing possible endogeneity through a control function (CF) approach, this paper provides evidence that reduced freshwater availability is significantly associated with increased outward migration, while greater freshwater abundance is associated with its reduction. Furthermore, irrigation is identified as a potential adaptation strategy, albeit primarily in the short run, as its intensive use is associated with the progressive depletion of underlying water resources. Taken together, our findings underscore the urgency of developing sustainable water management strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and foster long-term resource resilience.

2)

Speaker: Elettra Agliardi (University of Bologna)

Title: Optimal management of biodiversity preservation under uncertainty and ambiguity aversion

Abstract: We analyze the decision to preserve biological diversity when the value of biodiversity is uncertain and potentially subject to ambiguity. Optimal decisions are derived from the perspectives of both the producer or investor and the policy regulator (ecosystem planner). Our findings indicate that while measurable risk can generate incentives for biodiversity preservation, the presence of ambiguity aversion weakens these incentives, thereby accelerating the extinction of lower-valued species. The results further suggest that effective conservation strategies should aim to reduce ambiguity aversion by fostering a stable and transparent policy environment. Moreover, such strategies may adopt a two-tier framework, with one tier focused on output targets and the other on biodiversity conservation objectives. Although this work relies on analytical methods, it also highlights potential directions for future research grounded in experimental economics.