Seminar Far-right entry and voter mobilization in local runoff elections

Abstract: Far-right entry might affect turnout and vote choices, particularly in local runoff elections, where perceived stakes are higher. Using municipality-level panel data from four electoral cycles of county commissioner and lord mayor elections in Thuringia, Germany, we apply a difference-in-differences approach that compares the difference in turnout between first rounds and runoffs in the most recent electoral cycle, when an AfD (Alternative for Germany) candidate reaches the runoff, to the corresponding change in earlier cycles. Turnout increases by 11 percentage points, on average, in AfD-runoff counties, with larger effects in counties where the AfD performed more strongly in the first round and where the first round was more competitive. This pattern holds in other German states, supporting external validity. Partisan outcomes indicate that the incidence of additional turnout depends on the AfD-opposing party. Against the conservative CDU, AfD candidates are unable to mobilize additional voters, whereas against left-wing candidates, the additional turnout is more evenly split. These findings provide new evidence on how far-right parties reshape electoral dynamics, showing that their entry can increase participation but that mobilization need not originate from a single side.